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AS PUBLIC protests continue to rise significantly in the last few years, the Chinese military is about to march down the Tiananmen Square observing the countrys 60th anniversary of the Peoples Republic on October 1 this year. This would form its 14th such march so far in the last six decades. Previously, the Chinese military forces paraded in the capital 11 times — during 1949- 59, and once each in 1984 and 1999. Following internal criticism on public display of the muscular mechanism, these parades were discontinued in the interregnum. However, more than what the military forces are going to display in Beijing, in terms of their wares, this parade is significant for several reasons. Firstly, between the last parade in 1999 until now, the Peoples Liberation Army ( PLA) behemoth had grown to such an extent that today, it is even called in conjunction with other police forces for a systematic control over the people. This happened following the release of a white paper early this year calling for intervention in military operations other than war. The 34th Group Armys intervention at the Tiananmen Square against students, workers and peasants in 1989 is well known. The demobilised PLA troops became armed police forces in the 1990s for internal control. In addition to clamping on the rising protests in the country ( which increased from 74,000 in 2005 to 87,000 in 2006, 1.2 lakh in 2007 to 1.4 lakh in 2008), the PLA is now curbing ethnic protests as well. The March 14 uprising in Lhasa last year and the July 5 protests in Urumqi this year are stark portends for the future. Last years financial crisis also resulted in closing down of an officially estimated 67,000 factories — that further triggered public protests. In this context, to what extent the PLA and other armed police forces were able to provide security to the people is debatable. Secondly, the PLA is not destined to be a mere “ constabulary” force parading in the national capital once in a while as some forces across the world exhibit. As Chinas soft power is increasing as reflected in the country becoming the brand name for the manufacturing sector coupled with rising nationalism of the Han nationality, the hard power — the PLA — is being called for by the communist party to form the bulwark in its drive to become a great power in the world. The periodic official pronouncements, national party congress reports and six white papers issued on national defence are crystal clear on this issue. The quid pro quo for this arrangement between the party and the PLA had already been worked out. Thus, the PLA budget was increased by more than 10 per cent every year in the last decade- and- a- half to the current $ 70 billion ( about Rs 3,36,000 crore). Other estimates cite more than $ 200 billion ( Rs 960000 crore) in total. Even with these fudged figures, Chinas defence allocations became the largest in Asia — displacing Japan this year. Thirdly, with these ever- increasing allocations to capital and technology intensive equipment, systems, software and deployment, China is triggering an arms race in the region, specifically with Japan, Australia, India, Indonesia and others. Currently, however, this race is triggering several multilateral permutations and combinations between different countries. Of late, Beijing is displaying its selective charm offensive towards North Korea, Pakistan, Myanmar, Malaysia, Bangladesh, and certain African and South American countries. These trends are ushering in “ security dilemmas” for several Asian countries specifically at a time when the United States is bogged down with costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is not clear in this arms race which country in Asia will blink first. Fourthly, while welcoming strategic arms reduction between the US and Russia, no significant universal disarmament measures were unveiled by Beijing, except for some claptrap. This is at a time Beijing is positioning itself as a “ responsible stakeholder” in the international system. Indeed, Beijing would display several weapons of mass destruction or systems at the parade, including newer long- range missiles or technologies. Some of these technologies or even systems are also selectively transferred to countries in Asia and beyond, if A. Q. Khans revelations and other reports are to be believed. Chinas January 11, 2007, anti- satellite test by using a ground- based KT- 2 missile against Fengyun- 1C satellite had also created ripples in several space faring nations. At the conventional weapons level as well, there have been no significant initiatives from Beijing. Finally, based on all indicators of current plans for the PLA modernisation and several programmes that were unveiled recently by the next parade slated for 2019, that is just before China is to transform into a “ well- off society” in 2020, the PLA would have been completely transformed — also as an alienated military force from the Chinese people, unless some drastic measures are taken. Srikanth Kondapalli is professor in Chinese Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University |